By By Elizabeth Ugbo
The 2027 Ogun State governorship race has begun to attract attention across the state. Political stakeholders, analysts, and voters are discussing who will succeed Governor Dapo Abiodun, where the strongest candidates come from, why zoning and religion may influence the outcome, when campaigns will intensify, and how political alliances could shape the final result. Investigations conducted between January and February 2026 show that several influential politicians have already positioned themselves for the contest.
Sarafa Isola Gains Strong Grassroots Backing
Ambassador Sarafa Isola, former Nigerian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, has emerged as a major contender.
Many respondents believe his long political experience gives him an advantage. He served as a local government chairman, chairman of chairmen, and Secretary to the Ogun State Government under former governor Gbenga Daniel.
Analysts say his grassroots connection remains strong across the state. Over 70 percent of respondents in the poll described him as well prepared for the governorship race.
A former House of Representatives member from Ogun West said Isola enjoys support across social groups.
According to him, the former High Commissioner has built strong relationships with both elite figures and grassroots communities.
Religion may also strengthen his chances. The Muslim community in the state wants a Muslim governor after Governor Abiodun’s tenure.
Historically, only former governor Ibikunle Amosun governed Ogun State as a Muslim in the last fifty years.
Furthermore, Isola holds the title of Baba Adinni of Ogun State and Yorubaland, Edo and Delta States. Analysts believe this role could help him secure strong Muslim backing.
Solomon Adeola (Yayi) Builds Political Influence
Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, represents Ogun West Senatorial District.
He previously represented Lagos West in the Senate for two terms between 2015 and 2023.
Before that, he chaired the House of Representatives Committee on Public Accounts.
Currently, he serves as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations.
However, many voters remain skeptical about his political roots in Ogun State.
About 55 percent of respondents believe his popularity remains stronger among political elites than ordinary voters.
Critics argue that he only entered Ogun politics recently after years in Lagos politics.
Nevertheless, supporters highlight his extensive empowerment programmes across Ogun West.
Political observers also describe him as the biggest spender among the current aspirants.
Yet analysts warn that he must build broader grassroots support beyond political leaders.
Ladi Adebutu Relies on Strong Grassroots Structure
Former PDP governorship candidate Ladi Adebutu remains a strong contender.
He represented Remo Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives during the Third Republic.
Since then, he has maintained strong political structures across Ogun State.
Many respondents said his grassroots appeal remains unmatched.
About 72 percent of those interviewed believe his empowerment programmes strengthened his popularity.
Adebutu’s 2023 governorship bid came close to victory, according to some analysts.
Supporters even claim that he won the election but lost through alleged irregularities.
However, zoning politics could weaken his chances in 2027.
Governor Abiodun and Adebutu both come from Ogun East. Therefore, some stakeholders prefer another zone to produce the next governor.
Tunde Lemo Emerges as Technocratic Candidate
Dr Tunde Lemo, former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, has also entered the race.
He previously served as Managing Director of Wema Bank.
Lemo also chaired the Abuja Securities and Commodity Exchange and the Federal Road Maintenance Agency.
Analysts say his economic expertise could strengthen governance and improve revenue generation in Ogun State.
However, many voters only started hearing about him recently.
This limited grassroots awareness may affect his political chances.
Moreover, religious considerations could influence voter preferences.
Some stakeholders believe a Muslim governor should succeed the current administration for balance.
Iyabo Obasanjo Returns to Ogun Politics
Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, has also shown interest in the governorship race.
She represented Ogun Central in the Senate between 2007 and 2011.
After fifteen years abroad, she recently returned to Nigerian politics and joined the ruling party.
Her defection surprised many observers because her father often aligns with opposition politicians.
Some analysts believe her ambition could strengthen relations between the federal government and the former president.
However, over 75 percent of respondents doubt she can win a governorship election in Ogun State.
Many voters also believe the state may not elect a female governor soon.
Gboyega Isiaka Maintains Loyal Support Base
Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka remains another strong political figure in the race.
He has contested the governorship election three times under different parties.
Currently, he represents Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives.
Isiaka enjoys strong support in Ogun West, especially among the Yewa people.
However, the growing influence of Senator Adeola in the region may divide the vote.
Some analysts also believe financial politics could weaken his chances.
Segun Showunmi Declares 2027 Ambition
Political commentator Segun Showunmi has also declared interest in the governorship race.
He contested the PDP governorship primaries in 2023 before supporting Adebutu.
Showunmi remains popular for his strong opinions on national issues.
Despite this visibility, analysts believe he must expand his grassroots network.
The Egba political agenda could still boost his chances if it gains momentum.
Governor Abiodun’s Possible Influence
Speculation continues about Governor Dapo Abiodun’s preferred successor.
Some political observers believe he may support Gboyega Isiaka.
Others suggest Senator Shuaib Salis could also emerge as a consensus candidate.
However, a senior government official insists the governor will not impose a successor.
According to him, the political system will produce the most acceptable candidate.
Voter Attitudes and Political Reality
The investigation also examined voter attitudes toward election practices.
About 68 percent of respondents admitted they might accept money from politicians.
However, they insisted they would still vote for their preferred candidate.
Fifteen percent said they would vote for the highest bidder.
Meanwhile, 17 percent remained indifferent.
Political analysts say voter frustration over economic hardship may influence future elections.
They also believe presidential election results could affect governorship outcomes across states.
Ogun 2027 Governorship Race Set for Intense Contest
Overall, the 2027 Ogun governorship election promises intense competition.
Key contenders include Sarafa Isola, Solomon Adeola, Ladi Adebutu, Gboyega Isiaka, and Tunde Lemo.
Others in the race include Iyabo Obasanjo, Abiodun Akinlade, and Segun Showunmi.
Stakeholders expect zoning, religion, political alliances, and grassroots structures to shape the final outcome.
