By By Elizabeth Ugbo
Nigeria’s petrol supply rose to 40.1 million litres per day in March 2026, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. The increase came from 39.5ml/d in February. The data was released in Abuja through the agency’s latest factsheet. It shows how imports helped stabilise supply despite rising global costs and local production shifts.
Supply Growth Driven by Imports
Total petrol supply increased slightly in March. Imports played a key role in this growth. They rose from 3ml/d in February to 5.9ml/d in March.
Meanwhile, domestic supply stood at 34.2ml/d. This figure highlights Nigeria’s continued reliance on local refining, especially from the Dangote Refinery.
However, the rise in imports shows that marketers are gradually returning to bridge supply gaps.
Dangote Refinery Performance Remains Strong
Production from the Dangote Refinery reached 48.2ml/d in March. Its capacity utilisation averaged 93.62 per cent.
Despite strong output, its domestic contribution declined. It dropped to 34.2ml/d in March. Previously, it recorded 36ml/d in February and 40.1ml/d in January.
This trend suggests shifting supply dynamics within the downstream sector.
Fuel Consumption Drops Significantly
Domestic petrol consumption fell sharply in March. It dropped to 47.3ml/d from 56.9ml/d in February.
This decline reduced pressure on supply. It also improved short-term market stability.
At the same time, pump prices remained high across major cities. Lagos recorded ₦1,249.01 per litre. Abuja posted ₦1,286.81, while Enugu stood at ₦1,280.43.
Supply Gap Persists Despite Improvement
Despite increased supply, a gap remains. Total supply of 40.1ml/d falls short of 47.3ml/d consumption.
This shortfall may strain inventories and distribution networks. Therefore, consistent supply growth remains critical.
Year-on-Year Decline Raises Concerns
On a yearly basis, supply dropped significantly. Nigeria recorded 40.1ml/d in March 2026, down from 51.6ml/d in March 2025.
This represents a decline of 11.5ml/d or 22.3 per cent.
However, month-on-month data shows slight recovery. Increased imports mainly drove this improvement.
Outlook: Imports Still Crucial
Overall, imports remain a key stabilising factor. They support supply during fluctuations in domestic production.
As Nigeria expands local refining capacity, reliance on imports may reduce. However, they remain vital in the short term.
